Chaos and the Auto Industry

http://order.ph.utexas.edu/chaos/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

BroooklynDodger thought there would be an easily-found authoritative site, a .edu domain, to reference this posting.  Turned out google found millions of sites, and a lot of the .edu domained locations were student papers.

Chaos frame social debates, like the future of the American auto industry.  The frame derives its authority from mathematic modeling of natural phenomena such as weather prediction or population dynamics, or movement of pendula.

The chaos frame says that unpredictably, small quantitative changes in a system may cause large, qualitative shifts in state.  Further, reversing the small drivers may not restore the original state.

Many natural events mimic this:  as the temperature rises from -0.9o C to 1.1o C, the ice sculpture melts.  It forms a puddle, which does not reconstitute as the sculpture when the temperature falls again.

Similarly, the US nameplate auto industry.  Dominant despite repeated stupid losses of money – GM’s EDS fiasco, Ford’s problems buying scab tires for the Explorer – finally the downward spiral is evident.  Just a few years ago, the books showed they were making money.