Epidemiology of Baseball

A "Public Health Crisis" is defined as "Something so bad even an epidemiologist can find it." The other side of that coin is testing whether "Old Wives Tales" have any validity: does wearing your coat in cold whether protect against colds? Essentially this conflict is over which side has has to reject the null, and to what degree of confidence.

The same applies to sports and statistical analysis. While the subject may be trivial, fortunes are bet on game outcomes, and spent on athletes salaries in the hope of winning, based on these analyses.

The NYT sports page includes a column which somewhat misses the boat of the Bill James SABR paper "Underestimating the Fog," http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.PDF

The James paper itself rejects the methods of proof of the following claims:

1. Clutch hitters don’t exist.
2. Pitchers have no ability to win, which is distinct from an ability to prevent runs.
3. Winning or losing close games is luck.
4. Catchers have little or no impact on a pitcher’s ERA.
5. A pitcher has little or no control over his hits/innings ratio, other than by striking batters out and allowing home runs.
6. Base running has no persistent impact on a team’s runs scored, other than by base stealing.
7. Batters have no individual tendency to hit well or hit poorly against left-handed pitching.
8. Batters don’t get hot and cold.
9. One hitter does not "protect" another in a hitting lineup.

These conclusions were reached by testing these hypotheses stated in the positive [clutch hitters exist] and failing to reject the null. Actually, the method seems something like comparing the ratio of a player's batting average with men on base in late innings to batting average generally in year 1, to the same statistic in year n. Conclusions were drawn by direct comparison of proportions, without use of confidence intervals or statistical tests. Bill James has shifted position, noting these claims are now indeterminate, not that they are wrong.



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http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/24/sports/baseball/24score.html

Baseball's Leading Man of Math Has Some Second Thoughts About the Numbers

By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: April 24, 2005

Inquisition at the Head of the Church

Not only was 1492 the year Columbus [thought to be a Jew from Genoa] sailed the Ocean Blue, it was also the year that Jews were expelled from Spain. BrooklynDodger hopes the elevation of Joseph Ratzinger is not like making Tom Delay president.

Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith

Definition:
Originally known as the Inquisition and then the Holy Office, the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (CDF) received its current appellation in 1965, but is still unofficially known as La Suprema in recognition of its preeminence. This office promotes and safeguards the Church's doctrine. Thus everything that in any way touches on the beliefs of the Catholic faith fall within its competence. The Vatican web site says explains CDF "promotes & sound doctrine and defend those points of Christian tradition that seem in danger because of new and unacceptable doctrines."

Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger has served for years as prefect of the CDF, assisted by a secretary, an undersecretary, a promoter of justice, and a staff of 33 members. Twenty-five members and 28 consultors round out the dicastery; the staff is divided among four divisions: the office for priests, for discipline, for doctrine, and for matrimony.

Having Done His Best to Elect Bush, Bloomberg Now Puts Our Health Further at Risk

From jump street, Homeland "Security" has been promoted and run by liars, hypocrits and incompentents. Bloomberg's announcement of the new incident command structure for New York uses the ruse of "terrorism" to extend control by people who don't know what they are doing - cops - to the more frequent hazardous waste events.

Under the new policy, police officials will direct the work of other city agencies at the scene of chemical and biological attacks and nearly all disasters that involve hazardous materials.

"I think the police's expertise is in doing an investigation and preserving evidence, and the Fire Department's expertise is in lifesaving and cleanup," the mayor said.

Police have basically no knowledge or experience with toxic chemical exposures or with personal protective equipment for emergency situations.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/23/nyregion/23respond.html

Mayor Says It's Best to Let Police Control Terror Scenes

By NICHOLAS CONFESSORE Published: April 23, 2005

Facing sharp criticism from New York City firefighters, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg yesterday firmly defended his administration's decision to give the police the authority to manage the scene of a biological or chemical attack.

Wellness - Good Advice for Living, Bad Advice for Saving Money

BrooklynDodger senses an offensive to undermine support for health insurance by blaming the victims who get sick, suggesting to others they can opt out of illness. For the moment, forget health and wellbeing. Employers make money on smoking, with a slight gain in health insurance costs from smoking, and a pure gain in pension costs. Likely they lose money on alcohol, because of increased longevity and younger age illness. Overweight is likely a wash or even a gain compared to normal, while excesses are found in obsese and underweight.


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http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/thompson16e_20050416.htm

Automakers urged to promote good health
Ex-health care agency chief says wellness programs help industry, workers

April 16, 2005
BY KATIE MERXFREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER

Automakers need to push health care to the top of the national agenda or in five or six years they could be facing tough choices, such as having to drop medical coverage for some workers, the former head of the nation's top health care agency told the Detroit Regional Chamber on Friday.

Speaking to about 120 of the state's business, political and health care leaders, Tommy Thompson said the nation is better off maintaining a system in which health insurance is sponsored primarily by employers than moving to a government-controlled health care system.
Those in attendance included Gov. Jennifer Granholm, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger and representatives from the U.S. automakers.

Health Policy by the Detroit News

Again, the Detroit News leads with health coverage. The editorial notes:

Last year General Motors' 119,000 hourly workers paid only 7 percent of their health care costs, compared with about 27 percent for the company's 38,000 salaried workers. Even at 27 percent, such a system virtually guarantees gross abuse of health care services by providing virtually no incentive to economize on the use of drugs, physician services and hospitals.

This is the first quantitative description of how management's free shot at the salaried health care system has shifted costs to patients. It would be interesting to know the per capita costs, comparing salaried to hourly, to see whether there is any impact on cost. From a game theory perspective, deductables may encourage increased utilization, since increases reduce the fraction paid by the patient.

The last sentence denounces patients who go to the doctor when they think they are sick, fill the prescriptions written by those doctors, and go to the hospital when their doctor puts them there.


http://www.detnews.com/2005/editorial/0504/20/A13-155821.htm


Wednesday, April 20, 2005
UAW plays deadly health care game

Advances in Public Health - Sex on the Beach

The Detroit News remains the best source of culture change information in the midwest. The important culture change is that kids come back and get tested. Another advance would be to have the Daytona Beach hotels provide condoms with the room amenities like soap and shampoo.

BrooklynDodger questions whether the demon rum was consumed innocently, or in hopes of loosening inhibitions.

This question has been the subject of academic investigation. The authors below are based in Ann Arbor, suggesting which large public university was surveyed. Reporting an increase in "binge" drinking among undergraduate women, the investigators examined whether female undergraduate women associated being able to "drink like a guy" (e.g., drink large amounts of alcohol, drinking competitively) with gender equality. While women of all drinking levels reported feeling pressure to drink "heavily" because of the favorable impression they could make on their male peers, primarily women who were frequent binge drinkers throughout college felt that "drinking like a guy" described their own drinking behaviors. While women reported that being able to "drink like a guy" provided them with a sense of equality with their male peers, analysis of the transcripts suggests that "drinking like a guy" had less to do with gender equality and more to do with emphasizing women's (hetero)sexuality.

http://www.detnews.com/2005/health/0504/19/B01-154903.htm
Spring-breakers get STD tests
Some pay steep price for loosened vacation inhibitions, say busy doctors.

By Sharon Terlep / The Detroit News

...Doctors throughout Metro Detroit are reporting a spike in the number of young people getting STD tests in recent weeks -- a jump they attribute to spring break indiscretions. Health experts say that as the number of tests rise, so too do the number of people who test positive for such diseases as chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis and genital herpes.

"Without even looking at a calendar, we can pick out when spring break has ended just by the number of positives we see in the labs," said Carol Holland, technical director of the molecular pathology lab at Beaumont Hospital in Royal Oak.

The lab, which services Beaumont's two hospitals and five medical office buildings, sees STD test requests jump more than 10 percent in the weeks following spring break.

...Now is the peak time for HIV tests at Michigan State University, since most students wait the recommended 30 days before getting tested, said Dennis Martell, MSU coordinator of health education. More than 100 students are signed up for tests in April, the most the university can do in a month.

At the University of Michigan, demand for STD tests is so high following spring break that clinic workers aren't allowed to go on vacation during peak periods.
...

U-M sends safety packets, with suntan lotion, safe-eating tips and information on STDs, to students living in dorms. MSU spreads the message online, passes out condoms and encourages alternatives to traditional spring break locations.
...
In a normal week, Davidson gives STD tests to three or four college-age patients at his West Bloomfield practice. In the last two weeks, about 20 college students have been in for tests, all worried they picked up an STD during spring break. Five tested positive.
... Many come in with their parents, he said.


Subst Use Misuse. 2005;40(2):241-67.

Drinking like a guy: frequent binge drinking among undergraduate women.

Young AM, Morales M, McCabe SE, Boyd CJ, Darcy H.Substance Abuse Research Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. baldwin@umich.edu

...

Boner Pills Pulled

Personally, the Dodger felt that the Levitra woman was way superior to the smirking Viagra dude. Are these ads permitted in prime time, the Dodger thinks they are.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57656-2005Apr15.html

FDA Orders Levitra Ad Off the Air
TV Spot Doesn't Explain Drug's Side Effects

By Frank AhrensWashington Post Staff WriterSaturday, April 16, 2005; Page E01

The Food and Drug Administration has ordered drug giants Bayer Pharmaceuticals Corp. and GlaxoSmithKline PLC to immediately pull a television ad for impotence drug Levitra, saying that the commercial does not adequately state the drug's potential side effects and that it cannot substantiate claims that it is superior to competitors such as Viagra or that it improves female satisfaction during sexual activity.


The 15-second ad, called "My Man," which includes the tag line, "Levitra: When it counts," features an actress asking, "In the mood for something different?" She goes on to say Levitra is "the best way to experience that difference."

...

Levitra is the second impotence drug to have one of its television ads pulled. In November, the FDA told Pfizer Inc. to discontinue a Viagra ad that referred to the actor as "wild thing," saying the company did not state that the drug is for men and failed to mention potential side effects. During the commercial, a browbeaten actor grows blue horns the same color as the pill and appears to become more sexually interested in his female partner

Bored thoughts about General Education

BrooklynDodger attended an alumni event for a certain institution the other night, which even was a lecture by the chair of one of the general education courses, a tenured professor in one of the humanities. The lecture was about the importance of general education. Accepted applicants were invited; whether this was an attractive taste of first year life was questionable.

It's said that age sets in when your doctor and lawyer seem younger than you are, but this professor seemed younger too. The Dodger would not have attempted a 4o minute presentation without visual aids, nor would the Dodger have read a prepared text [if the Dodger could have written one of that length] at that length. Neither could the Dodger remember in much detail the literary works read in that course in the Dodger's youth.

As time went by, the Dodger began to question strongly held beliefs on the benefits of general education. The Professor quoted the Dartmouth Review as approving the institution's approach, surely a questionable sucking up to a DWM great books curriculum. As the mind wandered, it came to the notion of posting some deep thoughts on general education.

First, general education acknowledges separate domains of literature, art, social science and natural science, then waffles on whether it's trying to get across "manner of thought" in these domains or substance in these domains.

Second, the humanities part of gen ed presents to the student the actual works [translated if need be], which are accessible to non majors directly. Nebulous is the value to critical thinking of the Illiad, etc, other than being able to appear cultured by knowing who Priam and Hector were [everyone knows Achilles, Oddyseus, that's victor's history]. [Did the Dodger get that right?]

By contrast, the natural sciences role in gen ed is confused. Is there any value to teaching elementary courses in chemistry, physics, or first year calculus to humanities or social science majors? Kuhn is very clear and persuasive that textbooks in the sciences actually obscure the nature of scientific thought development, and that scientists themselves frequently fail to understand the intellectual processes in development of their own field. Is the "manner of thought" to be learned in elementary courses in the disclipline, or in the diluted versions of Rocks for Jocks or Physics for Poets? Actual scientific publications in this era are unintelligable to anyone outside the field. Frankly, the science people should take a history or philosophy of science course to understand what they are doing.

The social sciences fall in between. History, and history of thought, is a real thing that students should know if only to see whether anything they are hearing now is new under the sun. Narrative and popular versions of social science are available just as some natural science trade paperbacks are to be found. But economics papers and textbooks are equally recondite to those in the natural sciences, hidden in the veil of mathematics.

Schadenfreud - Mitch Albom

BrooklynDodger has had it in for Mitch Albom since he scabbed the newspaper strike in Detroit, these many years ago. He crossed the line at a time it would have made a difference, hurting the strike since he had a bit of a liberal veneer, and certainly had other places to peddle his talent.

So, Mitch reported a story about two MSU players at the game, who didn't go to the game, with a lot a really nice details which never occurred. He posted the story before the game was played, so there's no doubt it was dry labbed.

Albom crossed over from sports with "Tuesdays With Morrie," which the Dodger recalls recounts discussions with a dying professor. Did Mitch write both parts of those conversations?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-04-09-albom_x.htm

http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw114108_20050407.htm

Box of Rocks

BrooklynDodger feels there's an exception to the notion that any publicity is good publicity as long as the name is spelled right. Let's think this through: largest paper [the Dodger guesses] in the largest state for selling autos, where the US nameplate product is on the ropes, especially for non-trucks. Also, a paper that covers the auto industry on a national basis. Also, you have maybe 25% of the market, so it's not like you are going to blow a hole in their pages.

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0504/10/autos-144684.htm

Saturday, April 9, 2005
GM pulls ads from Los Angeles Times over coverage
Associated Press

LOS ANGELES -- General Motors Corp. says it will stop advertising in the Los Angeles Times, at least temporarily, because of dealer concerns over "factual errors and misrepresentations" in the newspaper's articles and editorials.

The newspaper, which is owned by Tribune Co., will review coverage that prompted the complaints from the world's largest automaker, said Times spokesman David Garcia.
GM spokesman Brian Akre would not identify which stories or editorials the company objected to, but said it had been a series of reports over the past several months. "We made our objections known to the Times and we prefer to keep those private," he said Friday by telephone from Detroit.

He said the decision was made this week because of "strongly voiced objections from our dealers in Southern California regarding factual errors and misrepresentations in the Times editorial coverage."

"We recognize and support the news media's freedom to report and editorialize as they see fit," Akre said. "Likewise, GM and its retailers are free to spend our advertising dollars where we see fit."

The ban covers corporate advertising, not individual dealer ads in the classified section, he said. The company did not say the cancellation was permanent.

Jay Gould Was Maybe Right

Jay Gould is said to have said, "I can hire half the working class to shoot the other half of the working class." Meaning strikers, who likely had a better job than the gun thugs working for management.

At a certain point, density of good jobs gets so low that public opinion - a surrogate for votes - abandons even aspiration to get one of these jobs for self or childred.

The Detroit News cyber survey reproduced below says management cuts in benefits for auto industry were approved by 47% of those who logged in. 35% said the cuts were unfair.

BrooklynDodger notes that cuts in health care and benefits describe in the article are mostly for salaried people, although hourly new hires in Delphi and Visteon are also getting less than "tenured" employees.

Why is it that Detroit News, a right wing rag, produces more bloggable material than the Detroit Free Press, New York Times, or the Washington Post when not covering the Virginia Legislature?

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0504/10/A01-145572.htm

Shrinking Benefits

What best reflects your attitude about the cuts in health care and pension benefits underway at the Big Three?

They are overdue
46.67%

The benefits still outclass other industries
17.78%

They are unfair to workers
35.56%

Tears and Tear Gas in East Lansing

If the student movement were alive, we could applaud the East Lansing police for preparing the next generation for street fighting. At MSU, win or lose, there's a contest in the streets.

It would be helpful if reporters could distinguish between pepper spray, an aerosol of capsiacin, essence of red pepper, from CS. CS is a powder which sublimes over time. Clothing and other surfaces contaminated with CS will generate toxic vapor for some time. It was dumped in tunnels in Viet Nam because of its persistance.

Both CS and capsiacin were bioassayed and found not to be carcinogenic, although the delivered dose may have been limited by the acute irritancy.


http://www.detnews.com/2005/msu/0504/03/A09-137856.htm

Sunday, April 3, 2005
Police use gas to break up rowdy Spartan crowds
East Lansing Police arrest several after small fires are started, but no injuries are reported.

By George Hunter / The Detroit News

EAST LANSING -- Revelers throwing bottles prompted police to use chemical gases to disperse crowds following Michigan State University's Final Four loss Saturday night, East Lansing Police reported.

About 12 people were arrested on charges including disorderly conduct, police said, but there were no reports of injuries.

About 3,000 people had gathered outside an apartment complex in East Lansing after the game, and police used CS gas to disperse them. Another 1,000 to 2,000 had gathered downtown, and police also used gas there. The crowds also started several small fires, police said.

"Cops are going crazy. I saw a guy walking and I saw a cop knock him down for no reason," said Brandon Nicholas, a Lansing Community College student. "They're shooting tear gas all over the place, and it burns. This is nuts."

Although many students said they weren't warned, police said they advised crowds before using the gas, which is like a pepper spray and can easily rinse off clothes, said Sgt. Florene Taylor of the East Lansing Police Department.